In our research, we looked at players’ points from the last four seasons in order to identify the best and most reliable players to pick Fantasy Premier League new 2024/25 season. We examined long-term value of selected FPL assets – players capable of delivering FPL points on a regular basis in each season.
Here are our results.
How to use our list of best FPL picks
Do you still, struggle with who to pick to your FPL team for the 2024/25 season? Our list could help you find players that are very reliable in delivering points based on data from the last four seasons.
This could be very useful for FPL managers who think long-term and who do not get easily distracted by short-term volatility in players’ performances.
Basically, this can help you pick the core of your FPL team – players, who will be in your squad through the majority of the season (you would sell them only if they got injured).
It will help you find set-and-forget players. Because they had stable output in the last four seasons, we can expect similar performance from them in the next season as well.
Focus on players with high Expected points per 38 games and with low Standard Deviation of their points and who you think have a high chance of playing at least 32+ games in the season.
High Expected points per 38 games means that players are expected to score a high amount of points in 38 games.
Low Standard deviation means that the points they are expected to score should be very close to the expected output and shouldn’t deviate much from it in both directions.
Please note, that some of those players are rotation risks, so they can be benched from time to time and do not get 38 games during the season – therefore their total points output will be lower.
We used data from the last 3 Fantasy Premier League seasons and calculated:
- Average of Total Points per season (from last 3 campaigns) – Column 5
- Average of Points Per Game per season (to consider players who used to miss the season due to injuries) – Column 3
- Standard Deviation of Points Per Game per Season – Column 4
- Expected Points per 38 games – 38*Average of Points Per Game per season – Column 6
Why we calculated Expected points per 38 matches? Because we want to see how many points would players that were injured (or missed due to other reasons) during some gameweeks, would score over 38 games.
Big thanks to Vaastav, without his FPL data on GitHub these calculations would not be possible.
Best FPL goalkeepers to pick in 2024/25 (based on long-term data)
First, let’s take a look at the most reliable FPL goalkeepers over the last three seasons.
We really like the look of Allisons’s and Raya’s average points over the last three seasons they played. If you are willing to invest more money in your goalkeeper, do not overlook these two.
If you are looking for cheaper options (4.5) than Pope and Allison, consider Dean Henderson or Jose Sa. They are regularly scoring fewer points than more expensive options, but based on the long-term data they are the best picks at a 4.5m price point.
Best FPL defenders to pick in 2024/25 (based on long-term data)
Let’s move to the most reliable defenders in Fantasy Premier League.
It is no surprise to see Liverpool full-backs TAA, Trippier and Robertson up top. They scored a big amount of points in the last three seasons and were very reliable assets for our FPL teams.
The standard deviation of Chalobah’s and Chilwell’s points per game in the last four seasons is very high, which indicates that their points output could deviate quite a bit from the expected value.
Players like Saliba, Gabriel, Schar, Mings, Mee shouldn’t be overlooked either.
Do not overlook them when picking defenders into your FPL squad for the new season.
Best FPL midfielders to pick in 2024/25 (based on long-term data)
When it comes to FPL midfielders, no player has shown such reliability over the last three seasons as Egyptian King Mo Salah. He has a high expected output and low standard deviation of average points per game from the last three seasons which makes him a perfect set-and-forget player in your FPL squad.
Son, Foden, Bowen, and Odegaard have high expected points, but also high standard deviations, so the risk is high that they might not deliver points close to their expected output.
Saka, Fernandez, Jota, Mbeumo, and Maddison should also be in consideration, especially if you would like to spread the money around your squad. When they play, they can deliver points.
Best FPL forwards to pick in 2024/25 (based on long-term data)
We have a lot of choices among FPL forwards this season. Haaland is likely a no-brainer for the majority of FPL managers. But who are the other reliable picks for our three precious forward spots?
Watkins and Isak are pricy options, but you get what you paid for – in this case, regular delivery of FPL points.
Do not overlook Toney, Solanke and Jesus – when they play they are good FPL picks as they deliver too.
Conclusion
As you can see, there are some players in the Fantasy Premier League that are able to deliver a similar amount of points every season. That makes them almost the best and the most reliable fantasy picks.
However, it does not mean you should ignore the rest.
Or new signings.
Pick some of these reliable assets into the core of your FPL squad.
And fill the rest with other players or others you expect to do well despite having a lack of data to evaluate their FPL performance.
Good luck in the 2024/25 season!
Further resources
- Best FPL Team Names for 2024/25 season
- What is xG and how to use expected goals in FPL?
- Managing risks in FPL
- Books that will help you to improve your FPL skills
