The 2022/23 EPL season has concluded, and now is the time for Fantasy Premier League managers to reflect and assess their performance.
When it comes to selecting defenders for our FPL team, clean sheet odds and expected clean sheets play a crucial role in our decision-making process. Let’s take a closer look at which teams managed the most clean sheets in the 2022/23 Premier League season and which teams either exceeded or fell short of their defensive expectations based on bookmakers’ odds.
As a quick reminder, prior to each gameweek of the 2022/23 season, we utilized our Odds to Probability Calculator to determine the clean sheet odds (the probability of keeping a clean sheet) for all Premier League teams.
This allowed us to create an expected clean sheet table, providing an estimate of the number of clean sheets each team should have achieved compared to their actual clean sheet count.
By calculating the difference between the actual and expected clean sheets, we obtain the delta, which indicates whether a particular team outperformed or underperformed their defensive expectations based on bookmakers’ odds.
EPL most clean sheets 2022/23
| Team | Expected Clean Sheets 22/23 | Clean Sheets 22/23 | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 11.39 | 17 | -5.61 |
| Arsenal | 13.85 | 14 | -0.15 |
| Liverpool | 13.07 | 14 | -0.93 |
| Newcastle | 11.8 | 14 | -2.2 |
| Manchester City | 16.81 | 13 | 3.81 |
| Brighton | 11.11 | 12 | -0.89 |
| Aston Villa | 9.32 | 12 | -2.68 |
| Brentford | 8.69 | 12 | -3.31 |
| Wolves | 8.56 | 11 | -2.44 |
| Chelsea | 12.38 | 10 | 2.38 |
| Tottenham | 10.71 | 10 | 0.71 |
| West Ham | 9.41 | 9 | 0.41 |
| Crystal Palace | 9.02 | 9 | 0.02 |
| Everton | 7.97 | 9 | -1.03 |
| Fulham | 7.74 | 9 | -1.26 |
| Bournemouth | 6.68 | 8 | -1.32 |
| Nottingham | 6.6 | 8 | -1.4 |
| Leicester | 7.8 | 7 | 0.8 |
| Leeds | 7.53 | 5 | 2.53 |
| Southampton | 6.79 | 4 | 2.79 |
| Total | 197.23 | 207 | -9.77 |
Most clean sheets: In the 2022/23 EPL season, Manchester United – 17.
Most expected clean sheets: Bookies had the highest expectations from Manchester City. According to bookie odds Citizens should have kept the most clean sheets from all teams – 16.81.
Biggest defensive overperformers: Manchester United overperformed their defensive expectations the most of all Premier League teams. The Red Devils should have kept 11.39 clean sheets in 2022/23 season according to bookies odds instead of 17.
Biggest defensive underperformers: Manchester City underperformed their defensive expectations the most of all teams. Citizens should have kept 16.81 clean sheets instead of 13 according to bookies odds.
Read more: 4 Books that will help you improve your FPL skills
Real clean sheets vs expected clean sheets chart in 2022/23
The chart below illustrates the progression of average clean sheets per gameweek (GW) and average expected clean sheets per gameweek throughout the season:
GW1 – GW10: phase of defensive underperformance – we saw fewer clean sheets than was expected by bookmakers. It was time when defenders did not offer many points and attackers was offering higher points potential
GW11 – GW38: phase of defensive overperformance – we saw more clean sheets than was expected by bookmakers. This was period when we should more intensively focus on defenders in our FPL teams.
Breaking point: GW11 was a breaking point, where the lines crossed. It was a signal to focus more on defenders than attackers if the trend was about to continue (which did).
The 2022/23 season review
Total clean sheets: In the 2022/23 season, we have seen a total of 207 clean sheets, which is 5,45 clean sheets per gameweek. In comparison, in the 2021/22 season we have seen 212 clean sheets at the rate of 5,58 clean sheets per gameweek.
So, in the 22/23 we have seen fewer clean sheets, and we got fewer points from premium defenders, such as TAA, Cancelo, Robertson…
Total expected clean sheets: bookies expected 197,23 clean sheets in the EPL 22/23 season. It means, that this was a season of small defensive overperformance as we saw 10 more clean sheets than we should have in comparison to what bookies expected.
Our clean sheets predictions before the 2022/23 season
Up until now, we were analyzing how many clean sheets we expected based on bookies odds.
But before the start of the last season, we made our own predictions on how many clean sheets we predict for all teams.
The predicted clean sheets were calculated as the average of clean sheets each teams kept in the last four Premier League seasons. You can find our calculations here: Stable defensive teams.
Let’s look at how these predictions based on simple averages differ from the real clean sheets count.
| Team | Predicted clean sheets | Actual Clean Sheets | Clean Sheets left |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 19.25 | 13 | 6.25 |
| Liverpool | 17.25 | 14 | 3.25 |
| Chelsea | 14.75 | 10 | 4.75 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12.25 | 10 | 2.25 |
| Aston Villa | 11 | 12 | -1 |
| Arsenal | 10.75 | 14 | -3.25 |
| Everton | 10.75 | 9 | 1.75 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 10.75 | 11 | -0.25 |
| Crystal Palace | 10.5 | 9 | 1.5 |
| Leicester City | 10.25 | 7 | 3.25 |
| Manchester Utd | 10.25 | 17 | -6.75 |
| Brighton | 9.75 | 12 | -2.25 |
| Newcastle United | 9.25 | 14 | -4.75 |
| Brentford | 9 | 12 | -3 |
| Leeds United | 8.5 | 5 | 3.5 |
| Southampton | 8.25 | 4 | 4.25 |
| West Ham United | 8.25 | 9 | -0.75 |
| Bournemouth | 7.5 | 8 | -0.5 |
| Fulham | 7 | 9 | -2 |
| Nottingham | 6 | 8 | -2 |
| Total | 211.25 | 207 | 4.25 |
Similarly, as in bookies’ expectations, Manchester City underperformed the clean sheet predictions the most, while Manchester United overperformed the clean sheet predictions the most.
Both tables offer similar insights.
Clean Sheet reports from previous season
Are you interested in comparing insights about clean sheets from EPL 2022/23 season to the previous season? Check our report from the end of 2021/22 season as well: Clean Sheets vs Expected Clean Sheets in 2021/22 Report
Conclusion
Focusing on defenders who have high clean sheet expectations can be a crucial element of a successful Fantasy Premier League strategy. The clean sheet data from the EPL 2022/23 season can provide valuable insights and help inform your decisions before the start of the next season.
By considering the performance of teams in terms of clean sheets, you can identify potential defensive assets that may contribute significantly to your Fantasy Premier League team’s success.
