We are in the konckout rounds of EURO 2024 Fantasy Football, and the round of 16 starts in just a few days. The way you approach it will largely depend on whether you saved your wildcard for Quarterfinals or not.
Without further ado, here are our EURO Fantasy Matchday 4 Tips with best picks, odds, captain and our team selection for R16 to help you navigate through this critical round.
Few notices for the start…
- The budget of our fantasy teams increased by 5 million, so the budget is less of an issue when selecting the best squad as it was in the group stage. That’s why we urged you to use your limitless wildcard in the group stage, and we hope you have already used it.
- We have unlimited transfers in R16.
- The limit for players from the same teams increased to 4.
1. Strategy for EURO 2024 Fantasy R16
As we said at the beginning, your strategy for the Round of 16 of EURO 2024 Fantasy largely depends on whether or not you have your regular wildcard available.
That’s why we divide our tips to two sections…
a) Strategy with wildcard available
If you saved your wildcard, you are in a great position.
You can use it after the R16, when is the best time to deploy this chip (because we have only 3 free transfers between R16 and Quarterfinals).
It means, you can use unlimited transfers now to basically built a “free hit” team, so you do not have to consider which teams will go through, and you can pick the best possible team for the R16.
So, when selecting players for the R16, focus solely on this matchday and nothing more. Do not look at which teams could likely advance to the quarterfinals or which team could win the tournament.
Eliminate the noise and focus only on what is important: selecting a fantasy team only for one matchday.
You can take as many punts as you want. You can bring in players and talismans from teams from any team you want. Focus only on this matchday.
You will be worrying about the bigger picture later when you use your wildcard before the start of the Quarterfinals.
For now, just pick the players that you think will score the most points in the Round of 16.
b) Strategy without wildcard
As we mentioned, we have only 3 free transfers available between R16 and QF, which can really be a problem for fantasy managers without a wildcard.
If you are one of those managers, you should focus on teams that will likely advance to the quarterfinals. You can use bookies odds to find out, which teams are favorites of R16. We converted those bookies’ odds into probabilities, so check that out.
You have to think long-term now. Navigating the EURO 2024 semifinals and finals will not be as hard as R16 and Quarterfinals, because we have 4 free transfers before the semifinals and 5 free transfers before the final.
But now, you have to take R16 and Quarterfinals in one package when picking your squad with unlimited transfers.
Make sure, you have your two goalkeepers from both halves of bracket – that way you can rotate these two keepers all the way up until the semifinals (if their team progresses). For example, Pickford and Costa.
Make sure you have solid captaincy options from both sides of brackets as well.
So, if you do not have your wildcard, you have to pick your squad with a longer timeframe in mind.
2. Tips for Matchday 4 – Round of 16 – of EURO 2024 Fantasy
a) Pick goalkeepers from both sides of bracket
Goalkeepers of your fantasy EURO team could be from both sides of the bracket – that way you make sure they do not end up playing against each other in the next round, which would mean that you cannot make goalkeepers subs.
b) If you still have your wildcard and limitless, create free hit teams
- use unlimited transfers now to create the best team for R16
- use the limitless wildcard in the Quarterfinals to have “free hit” team in QF and still a lot of players to choose from
- use the regular wildcard in Semifinals to get rid of your R16 players (that will revert back to your squad after limitless) to set up your team for Semifinals and Final
- Use 5 free transfers before the finals to get 11 starters to your team (as bench do not matter in the final)
c) Diversify your defense based on EURO 2024 clean sheet odds.
d) Of course, have a captain for each day within R16 matchday
So 4 captaincy options total.
e) Bench players that play on the last day
f) Do not overlook players good at balls recovered and MOTM awards
3. Fixtures to target in Matchday 4 of EURO Fantasy
Let’s look at who are bookies’ main favorites to do well in MD4:
- Spain vs. Georgia: Spain 81 % to win, 45 % to score 2.5+ goals
- Portugal vs. Slovenia: Portugal 70 % to win, 32 % to score 2.5+ goals
- England vs. Slovakia: England 69 % to win, 30 % to score 2.5+ goals
- Romania vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 66 % to win, 29 % to score 2.5+ goals
- Germany vs. Denmark: Germany 62 % to win, 25 % to score 2.5+ goals
- France vs. Belgium: France 51 % to win, 17 % to score 2.5+ goals
Find over 2.5 odds for all teams in our article: EURO 2024 Over 2.5 Goals Odds
4. Key player to own and transfer targets for Matchday 3
Key players to own
- Germany midfielder: We prefer Musiala, Gundogan, Wirtz – in that order
- Germany defender: Mittelstadt (budget enabler)
- England defensive coverage: Pickford or Guehi (Guehi is very good at balls recovered)
- Fernandes – main man for Portugal
- Kane, Bellingham – OK fixture against Slovakia
- Ronaldo
- Carvajal or Cucurella – your Spain defensive coverage
- Cancelo/Costa
Transfer targets
- Mbappe
- Lobotka, Rice, Kante – cheap budget mids good at balls recovered
- Akanji – very good at balls recovered
- Gakpo – seems to be the main man for the Netherlands
- Van Dijk – Netherlands defensive coverage, good at balls recovered, threat after set pieces
- Baumgartner/Sabitzer – main men for Austria, we prefer Baumgarner, both differentials
- Guler – young talent, OK fixture
5. Clean sheet probabilities for MD4
Let’s continue analyzing bookies odds for EUR 2024 Matchday 4. We used our Odds to probability calculator to convert other odds to probabilities as well, which helps us assess the potential of the following matchday.
Clean Sheet Odds Matchday 4
Bookies expect 5.09 clean sheets in MD4. Which teams have the highest chance of keeping a clean sheet? Bookmakers especially favor Spain (59 %), England (55 %) and Portugal (54 %) to keep a clean sheet in Matchday 4.
See our full table here: EURO 2024 Clean Sheet Odds.
6. Best captain for Fantasy EURO 2024 Matchday 4
When we select a captain in fantasy football, it is all about the fixture. Basically, we try the pick the fixture that has the highest haul potential (or hattrick potential).
But because we can change our captain 3 times in Matchday 4, you should have 4 captaincy options available – one for each day. And if your first captain will not deliver you can switch captaincy to another player who is yet to play.
A captain for each day
- Day 1: Musiala – Akanji would be the differential captain
- Day 2: Kane or Carvajal as differential captain
- Day 3: Ronaldo (or Mbappe)
- Day 4: Baumgartner (or Gakpo)
Captaincy thresholds:
- Day 1: 8 points
- Day 2: 7 points
- Day 3: 6 points
- Day 4: 5 points
So if your captain score this amount of points or more, you will keep the armband on him.
Read more: EURO 2024 Fantasy captaincy thresholds
Substitution thresholds:
- 4 points
7. EURO 2024 Fantasy Round of 16 Team Selection
Thanks Matej. Once again, top content! I’m in top 2000 in the world cos of you!
Thank you 🙂 And congrats!
Thanks very much Matej.
At nr 3. it’s Spain vs. Georgia not Spain vs. Portugal.
Have a nice day.
Thank you very much for noticing, I fixed it. It was a typo.