If you are not playing 5 at the back, your first sub should almost always be a 4.0 or 4.5 million defender.
Ideally low rotation risk centre back with green fixtures during busy periods. However, if he has a really bad fixture like LIV (A) where he is likely to score 0 or 1 point, you can move a 4.5 million midfielder who is more likely to score 2 points to your first bench spot.
Even though we focus on getting 2 points from our bench players, having a 4.5m defender as the first sub will maximize the chances of getting occasional clean sheet points from your bench player.
This 4.5 million defender will be likely from a non-top-6 team. For example, in the 2021/22 season, non-top-6 teams have kept 130 clean sheets in 38 gameweeks.
That’s 9.29 clean sheets per team. And that’s 0.24 clean sheets per non-top-6 team per gameweek. This is a big simplification, but with having a 4.5 million defender as your first sub you still have a 24% probability of getting clean sheet points.
It is a higher probability than a 4.5 million midfielder scoring a goal or registering an assist.
Of course, a defender can score 1 point instead of 2 when conceding 2 goals. That’s why you really want a defender with great fixtures in your first bench spot.
And if the fixture is bad, you put your 4.5 m midfielder as your first sub to minimize the risk and ensure 2 points.
Conclusion
When we approach a busy schedule in Fantasy Premier League, make sure you order your bench correctly. Every point counts, and if you can get even 10 extra points at the end of the season from having a correct bench order, it is definitely worth it.
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