In this article, we will look at the potential differential picks for your Fantasy Premier League team for Gameweek 1 in the 2024/25 season.
Read more about GW1 in our guide: FPL Gameweek 1 Tips, Captain, Transfer Targets & Team Selection
Best differentials for FPL 2024/25 Gameweek 1: Our Watchlist
Goalkeeper differential
Bernd Leno (5m, Fulham)
- owned by less than 4% of managers
- apart from GW1 and GW7, Fulham has a nice run of fixtures up to GW12
- last season, Fulham kept 10 clean sheets, and only 3 teams kept more
- 3rd for saves last season, 3rd for bonuses among goalkeepers in last season
- Can be an explosive fantasy asset
- But you must be prepare for some blanks, you need to keep him for longer period of time to catch his hauls
- 3 penalty saves in last 5 seasons
- in the last 3 seasons, he was averaging 3.69 saves per match
- And you need to have realistic expectations about clean sheets: 1 clean sheet in 4 games is realistic
Our rating: 4/10
Read more: Best FPL Goalkeepers to Pick
Defense differential
Senesi (5m, Bournemouth)
- Outstanding 4G + 5A last season (from 4.5 xGI)
- Differential as he is overlooked by the community, only 1% owned
- Opening fixtures for Bournemouth are not that bad
- Bournemouth with 9 clean sheets last season, but with lower xG conceded than teams like Spurs or Man. United
- you have to rely more on attacking returns from him, rather then clean sheets
Our rating: 4/10
Read more: Best FPL Defenders to Pick
Midfield differentials
Minteh (5.5m, Brighton)
- Minteh had a good preseason for Brighton with 2G + 1A in 3 games
- priced at 5.5m, he is a solid budget enabler that allows you to invest in multiple heavy hitters
- But could be rotated, Brighton has many options on the wings
Our rating: 2/10
Ward-Prowse (6.5m, West Ham) – 4/10
- Second highest xGI among West Ham players last season after Bowen
- On set pieces
- Proven FPL asset – classic FPL asset that can deliver stable output – around 150 points per season – which is very solid
- we can never time his points, so fixtures do not matter that much
- Do not have unrealistic expectations, based on historical data he can deliver around 13-15 attacking returns per season, so one attacking return in 3 matches on average.
Our rating: 4/10
Read more: Best FPL Midfielders to Pick
Attack differentials
Chris Wood (6m, Nottingham)
- proven FPL asset, he has a strong end of the last season
- When get game time he can deliver FPL points
- good form in preseason, he scored 3 goals in 5 matches
- very good fixtures for Nottingham up to GW6
- differential with under 5% owned
Our rating: 4/10
Read more: Best FPL Forwards to Pick
Who is a differential in Fantasy Premier League?
In the context of the FPL, a “differential” refers to a player who is not widely selected by other managers but has the potential to perform exceptionally well, thereby providing an edge over opponents. For example in this article, we considered as differentials only players who are selected by less than 5% of FPL managers.
The impact of differentials on your FPL score
The impact of differential players can be profound. For instance, if a differential player scores a goal, only a small number of managers will benefit from the points awarded for that goal. This means that those managers will move ahead of their rank competitors who did not have that player.
Read more: What is Effective Ownership in FPL?
On the other hand, if a widely owned player, such as Haaland, scores, almost everyone will benefit from his goal, which means, almost no one can move in the ranking,
Strategies to identify differentials
- Understanding player performance statistics can provide insights into potential differentials. This includes not only goals and assists but also underlying stats, such as shots on target, key passes, crosses, and other metrics that might indicate a player is in good form.
- A player’s Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR) can be a useful tool for identifying potential differentials. The FDR rates upcoming matches based on their perceived difficulty, which can influence the likelihood of a player performing well.
- If a regular starter is injured or suspended, a less popular player may get the chance to play and could become a valuable differential.
Common pitfalls when picking differentials
One of the common mistakes in identifying and selecting differentials is chasing last week’s points. Managers often pick players who performed well in the last game week without considering their overall performance and upcoming fixtures.
Over-reliance on differentials is another pitfall. A balanced team with a mix of popular and differential players could work better than a team full of differential. To avoid these mistakes, it’s important to carry out thorough research, take calculated risks, and maintain a balanced team.
