FPL Gameweek 14 is here but it is not an easy time for Fantasy Premier League managers as gameweeks (and Champions League games) are coming in quick succession during this tight schedule. We will likely see a lot of rotation and perhaps (but hopefully not) some injuries as well.
However, when playing FPL, you must always think of all events in terms of probabilities. And no matter how bad or good your gameweek was, you have to keep going.
So, here are our FPL GW14 Tips, with the best picks, fixtures, transfer targets, odds, captain picks, and team selection.
1. Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 14 Tips
- Bench order: In this busy schedule it is extremely important to have the bench ordered correctly – in order to maximize potential points from bench players. Check our guide here: How to order your bench in FPL
- Remember that if you still have your first Wildcard, you must use it before GW19 deadline
- Focus on Arsenal, Liverpool, Brighton, Wolves and West Ham players
- Aston Villa with 3 nice fixtures, Watkins could be a differential
- What to do with Man City assets? It is very hard to keep them given their poor form. But they will not be blanking forever. In one gameweek, they will be back and firing FPL points. We are leaning towards keeping them rather than rage selling them, but it is up to you to make the decision that best fits your team and strategy.
- Salah form is unbelievable, but is it sustainable? He is averaging 10 points per match, which is equivalent to 380 points per season (38 gameweeks). Is it even humanly possible to score so many points during the whole season? Salah keeps the record for most season points with 303 points in 2017/28. We would not be surprised if regression to the mean would happen with Salah’s points soon. But that is something that cannot be predicted.
- Brentford and Nottingham’s fixtures are worsening. However, they players could do well even in tougher fixtures. But if you want to make the most of the fixtures of other teams, you could sell Mbeumo, Wissa, Wood, Sels or some of them, to not have high exposure to tough fixture run.
2. Key players to pick and transfer tips for FPL GW14
Key players to pick
- Haaland/Salah – your captain option in almost any gameweek
- Cunha – Great form, Wolves still with great fixture run
- Saka – he is a season keeper for us
- Palmer – if you can fit him in without big sacrifices elsewhere in your team
- Gabriel/Saliba/Raya – focus on having at least one Arsenal defender
Transfer targets
- Liverpool defender – TAA, Van Dijk
- Bowen – could be your Mbeumo replacement, nice fixture run for West Ham up to GW18
- Mitoma, Joao Pedro
- Watkins, Rogers, Pau Torres – to exploit Aston Ville next 3 fixtures
- Evanilson – one to consider especially from GW15 onwards
- Odegaard – if you do not aim to have Arsenal defensive double up, but rather attacking double up Saka + Odegaard + Gabriel
Isak replacements
- Jackson – great form, OK stats
- Watkins
- Joao Pedro – if you need to free some funds
3. Fixtures to target in Gameweek 14
In which fixtures we could expect a lot of fantasy points? These are the fixtures to target in Gameweek 14 according to bookies odds.
- Man.City vs. Nottingham: Citizens 74 % to win, 44 % to score 2.5+ goals
- Southampton vs. Chelsea: Chelsea 68 % to win, 42 % to score 2.5+ goals
- Arsenal vs. Man.United: The Gunners 66 % to win, 35 % to score 2.5+ goal
- Aston Villa vs. Brentford: Aston Villa 56 % to win, 31 % to score 2.5+ goal
Find 2.5+ goals odds for all teams in our article: Premier League Over 2.5 Goals Odds.
Teams with bad defensive stats (the season):
You can target players playing against them.
- Ipswich (31.22 xGC)
- Leicester (30.83 xGC)
- Southampton (30.28 xGC)
Teams with bad defensive stats (last 30 days):
- Manchester City (12.33 xGC)
- West Ham (8.71 xGC)
- Tottenham (8.4 xGC)
Data source: Understat
4. Best captain pick in FPL GW14
According to our captaincy index, Salah is the best captain in FPL Gameweek 14 with a captaincy index score of 1.74
Saka (captaincy index score 1.69) is the number 2 captaincy pick and Haaland (1.58) is number 3.
5. What bookies odds say about Gameweek 14
As usual, we converted bookies odds into probabilities using our Odds to probability calculator, to assess the potential of GW 14.
Clean sheet odds for GW14
Manchester City (47 %) has the highest probability of a clean sheet in GW14. Bookies also favor Arsenal (40 %) and Chelsea (38 %) to likely keep a clean sheet in GW 14.
Expected clean sheets
Due to correction in the number of clean sheets: Liverpool, Manchester United
Liverpool overperformed their defensive expectations the most of all teams. They should have kept 4.16 clean sheets instead of 7 according to our expected clean sheets table.
Due to an improvement in the number of clean sheets: Man. City, Aston Villa
Man. City underperformed their defensive expectations the most from all teams. They should have kept 4.56 clean sheets instead of 2 according to our expected clean sheets table.
You can see the expected clean sheets table and clean sheet odds for all Premier League teams here.
Goalscoring odds for GW14
Haaland leads goalscoring odds for GW14.
Check all odds here: Premier League Goalsocring Odds.
6. FPL GW14 Team Selection
Now let’s look at our FPL team selection for GW14 and beyond. This is how our wildcard would look like in GW14.
7. Fantasy Premier League Tips
Find more tips, strategies and picks for Fantasy Premier League in these articles:
- Beginner? Read our guide: How to play Fantasy Premier League
- Confused about the rules? Read the Official rules of the game or check our FAQs
- Want to beat your mini-league rivals? This article is for you: 7 Key Tips for Fantasy Premier League Success
- Interested in improving your decision-making process when picking players to your fantasy team? Check out Books that will help you to improve your FPL skills
We hope our FPL GW14 tips with the best picks, fixtures, transfer targets, odds, captain picks, and team selection helped you to gather some useful information before the Gameweek 14 deadline.
Good luck in FPL GW14!
