FPL GW38 Tips: Expect crazy scores in the last gameweek

Gameweek 38 of Fantasy Premier League is usually pretty crazy. Let’s quickly look at our FPL GW38 Tips.

1. Crazy scores in Gameweek 38 of previous seasons

Analyzing gameweeks 38 from the previous 6 seasons, we noticed that we use to see a lot more goals in the last gameweek of the season. Here are the data:

Season	Average number of goals in GW1-37	Number of goals in GW38	The craziest score	Players with 3 goal involvement
2017/18	26,68	31	Tottenham 5:4 Leicester	Mahrez (1G+2A)
2018/19	28	36	Crystal Palace 5:3 Bournemouth	Zaha (3A)
2019/20	27,08	33	Manchester City 5:0 Norwich	De Bruyne (2G+1A), Aubameyang (2G+1A)
2020/21	26,89	31	Leicester 2:4 Tottenham	Fornals (2G+1A)
2021/22	27,89	39	Arsenal 5:1 Everton	none
2022/23	28,22	33	Southampton 4:4 Liverpool	none (only multiple players with brace)
2023/24	32,22	?	?	?

Gameweeks 38 from the previous six seasons were high scoring, with at least 4 more goals than the average goals per gameweek. We saw some crazy matches there and (except the last two seasons) players who registered 3 goals involvement.

Will history repeat in GW38 of 2023/24?

We think so.

2. FPL GW38 Tips

Our tips for Gameweek 38:

• Pick players from teams that still have something to play for
• Pick attacking players, if we are going to see a lot of goals, you want not just attacking mids and forwards, but also attacking defenders
• If you have nothing to lose, and your mini-leagues are decided, take -4 or -8 hit to bring in players you think have high potential to score 10+ points
• If you have nothing to lose, Mbeumo and Wissa could be great differentials
• Target Manchester City vs. West Ham game, Sheffield vs. Tottenham, Arsenal vs. Everton and Chelsea vs. Bournemouth. We think that these are the games where the most points are going to be.
• West Ham conceded the highest xG from all teams since the start of April, attacking City players could really feast in this match. Aim to have Man. City triple up for this gameweek
• Differential captain for Gamewek 38: De Bruyne
• Expect the unexpected, it is going to be a crazy gameweek.
• One player will highly likely register 3 goals involvements, try to estimate who that is and bring him in (it could easily be Haaland, De Bruyne, Foden, Son…).
• It is the last gameweek of the season, enjoy it

3. Key players to own and transfer targets for Gameweek 38

Key players

• Haaland – your captain
• Foden/De Bruyne
• Gvardiol – unbelievable form
• Palmer
• Isak, Gordon
• Son
• Porro – one Spurs defender with an attacking threat

Transfer targets

• De Bruyne, Gvardiol – if you are already not on City triple up
• Salah, TAA – as differentials
• Saka, Havertz – if you sold your Arsenal assets before GW37
• Eze, Mateta, Olisse – Crystal Palace were mostly ignored since they did not have a double in GW37, but it was a huge mistake as their best assets are regularly delivering points
• Mbeumo, Wissa – they are both in pretty good form, could be deifferentials

4. Fixtures to target in FPL Gameweek 38

In which fixtures we could expect a lot of fantasy points? Fixtures to target in GW38 according to bookies odds:

• Manchester City vs. Fulham: The Citizens 89 % to win, 69% to score 2.5+ goals
• Liverpool vs. Wolves: The Reds 84 % to win, 63 % to score 2.5+ goals
• Arsenal vs. Everton: The Gunners 84 % to win, 56 % to score 2.5+ goals
• Sheffield vs. Tottenham: Spurs 74 % to win, 58 % to score 2.5+ goals
• Chelsea vs. Bournemouth: The Blues 66 % to win, 49 % to score 2.5+ goals

Find 2.5+ goals odds for all teams in our article: Premier League Over 2.5 Goals Odds.

5. Who is the best captain in FPL GW38

We will keep the captaincy section short once again. West Ham defence have been terrible in recent gameweek (conceded the highest xG of all teams since April). With Title race still on, Manchester City will go for it. So, if you want to play it safe – captain Haaland – he will highly likely be the most captained player of the gameweek.

If you are looking for a differential captain, you can stay at the Manchester City vs. West Ham game, and captain De Bruyne, Foden or even Gvardiol.

According to our captaincy index, Haaland is the best captain in FPL Gameweek 38 with a captaincy index score of 2.66.

Son (captaincy index score 2.16) is the number 2 captaincy pick and Foden (2.13) is number 3.

6. What bookies odds say about Gameweek 38

As usual, we converted bookies odds into probabilities using our Odds to probability calculator, to assess the potential of gameweek 38.

Clean sheet odds for GW38

Arsenal (53 %) and Manchester City (51 %) have the highest clean sheet odds for Gameweek 38.

Expected clean sheets

Bookies expect 4.88 clean sheets in gameweek 37 in the last season, we were used to a rate of 5.45 per clean sheets gameweek. This season we have seen clean sheets at the rate of 4.06 clean sheets per gameweek.

Due to correction in the number of clean sheets: Everton, Arsenal

Everton overperformed their defensive expectations the most of all teams. They should have kept 8.25 clean sheets instead of 13 according to our expected clean sheets table.

Due to an improvement in the number of clean sheets: Sheffield, Burnley

Sheffield underperformed their defensive expectations the most from all teams. They should have kept 4.88 clean sheets instead of 1 according to our expected clean sheets table.

You can see the expected clean sheets table and clean sheet odds for all Premier League teams here.

Goalscoring odds for GW38

Check who leads any time goalscoring odds for GW38 here: Premier League Goalsocring Odds.

7. Scout Team Selection for FPL GW38