The first three rounds of the season are now over and we are going to focus our energy on the upcoming Fantasy Premier League gameweek 4 – there is a short break for Fantasy Premier League managers as Gameweek 4 starts after the international break.
But still, we want to help you to navigate you through the next round with our FPL GW4 Tips, the best picks, fixtures, transfer targets, odds, captain picks, and team selection.
1. The international break is a great time to:
- ease our minds a little bit, forget about FPL for a week or two, do not worry about who to captain, clean sheet odds and our squads.
- It can be a great time to regroup and come back stronger and fully concentrated.
- Especially if you were hit hard by the emotional rollercoaster that FPL is. A short break from the game (especially if you are frustrated with the game) can help you recharge the energy and bring back your focus (Read more: Essential tips for enjoyable FPL seasons without sacrificing your mental health)
- If you do not want to take a break from the game, you could study stats when you have time, and watch game highlighters that you missed
- You could also use your wildcard here, but only if your team is in terrible shape, and exploit fixture swings that occur in gameweek 4 – if this is your case, and you aim to use your wildcard now, activate it as soon as possible in order to catch price rises. Read more: Tips for efficient use of wildcard in FPL.
- You could start building your team for Champions League Fantasy, if you want to participate in this fantasy competition as well
- Read a book about FPL. Read more: 4 Books that will help you improve your FPL skills
Reading for an international break
We prepared for you a list of a few articles to read during the international break:
- Essential Tips for Fantasy Premier League Success
- Variance in FPL: How to deal with it?
- The Law of Large Numbers and its Role in FPL
- 7 Similarities Between FPL and Stock Market and How to Use Them
2. Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 4 Tips
- Having two or three free transfers is handy during international breaks. If you saved on a transfer in the previous gameweek, you can use 1 free transfer early in the international break and save the other one (or two) for Saturday in case there are some injuries on international duty or to rebalance your team
- You could also use your wildcard here, but only if your team is in terrible shape, and exploit fixture swings that occur in gameweek 4 – if this is your case, and you aim to use your wildcard now, activate it as soon as possible in order to catch price rises. Read more: Tips for efficient use of wildcard in FPL.
- If you did not save a transfer and have only one available, do not use it early as anything can happen during 2 week long break.
- Expect more rotation from now on, especially from teams that feature in the Champions League and Europe League (Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Aston Villa, and perhaps even Europea League teams – but the Premier League will be a priority to them). Make sure you have a bench in the correct order each gameweek. Read more: FPL Bench Order Guide.
- Exploit fixtures swings with your transfers (or wildcard)
3. Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 4 Tips
- We have some fixture swings in GW4, so it is potentially a good time to use wildcard, but only if your team is in terrible shape. The early wildcard would allow you to exploit fixture swings that occur in gameweek 4 – if this is your case, and you aim to use your wildcard now, activate it as soon as possible in order to catch price rises. Read more: Tips for efficient use of wildcard in FPL.
- Improved fixtures: Aston Villa fixtures are improving. Liverpool have very nice two upcoming fixtures. Chelsea with nice fixture run as well (but Palmer is our only one in consideration). Brighton with great next two fixtures.
- Worsen fixtures: Arsenal fixtures worsen (for 2 gameweeks), but they are still Arsenal and can score and keep a clean sheet against anyone. Similarly, Brentford has pretty tough next 2 fixtures.
4. Key players to own and transfer targets for FPL GW4
Key players
- Haaland/Salah – one of them, your captain option in almost any gameweek
- Saka – stable output over the last few years, bonus points magnet, however there will be some managers trying to do Saka to Salah this weak due to fixtures, but our approach is patient, it looks like a sideways move in long run. Rather use your free transfers in other areas of your team.
- TAA – good stats
Transfer targets
- Salah, Jota, TAA – your Liverpool coverage – if you went without Arsenal’s defence
- Watkins/Rogers – Aston Villa with very nice fixture run up to GW9
- Joao Pedro/Minteh/Mitoma – to exploit next 2 good fixtures for Brighton
- Bowen/Eze – mix of fixtures, but they are key players for their team and should be involved in their goals
- Palmer – if fit, but hard to fit him in
5. Fixtures to target in Gameweek 4 and fixture swings
In which fixtures we could expect a lot of fantasy points? Fixtures to target in GW4 according to bookies odds:
- Manchester City vs Brentford: Citizens 82 % to win, 58 % to score 2.5+ goals
- Liverpool vs. Nottingham: The Reds 80 % to win, 54 % to score 2.5+ goals
- Brighton vs. Ipswich: Brighton 71 % to win, 41 % to score 2.5+ goals
- Aston Villa vs. Everton: Aston Villa 65 % to win, 35 % to score 2.5+ goals
6. Best captain pick in FPL GW4
Who is the best captain in Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 4?
Haaland is great captaincy option in GW4. He is the safe captaincy pick given his ownership, he is a reliable FPL asset and has a great fixture. Ans similarly you cannot go wrong with Salah either. They are both equal captain picks in our opinion. However, we slightly prefer Salah over Haaland because of Salah’s classification as midfielder and extra point for goal and clean sheet.
But if you want to go with a differential captain, consider Jackson, Salah or Bowen – all three have good fixtures for captaincy.
7. What bookies odds say about Gameweek 4
As usual, we converted bookies odds into probabilities using our Odds to probability calculator, to assess the potential of gameweek 4.
Clean sheet odds for GW4
Bookies assigned the highest probability of a clean sheet to Liverpool – 47 %. The Reds are followed by Manchester City, Brighton and Aston Villa.
So this is where we should be looking for clean sheets in the next round of FPL.
Bookies expect 4.56 clean sheets in gameweek 4. In last season, we were used to a rate of 4.13 per clean sheets gameweek. This season so far, we have seen clean sheets at the rate of 4 clean sheets per gameweek.
Due to correction in the number of clean sheets: Liverpool, Arsenal
Liverpool overperformed their defensive expectations the most of all teams. They should have kept 1 clean sheets instead of 3 according to our expected clean sheets table.
Due to an improvement in the number of clean sheets: Chelsea, Fulham
Chelsea underperformed their defensive expectations the most from all teams. They should have kept 0.75 clean sheets instead of 0 according to our expected clean sheets table.
You can see the expected clean sheets table and clean sheet odds for all Premier League teams here: Premier League Clean Sheet Odds.
Goalscoring odds
Coming soon.
8. FPL GW4 Wildcard Team selection
Here is our FPL team selection for Gameweek 4. Salah is our captain. Our scout picks for GW4. This is how our wildcard in GW4 would look like:
9. Fantasy Premier League Tips
Find more tips, strategies and picks for Fantasy Premier League in these articles:
- Beginner? Read our guide: How to play Fantasy Premier League
- Confused about the rules? Read the Official rules of the game or check our FAQs
- Want to beat your mini-league rivals? This article is for you: 7 Key Tips for Fantasy Premier League Success
- Interested in improving your decision-making process when picking players to your fantasy team? Check out Books that will help you to improve your FPL skills
We hope our FPL GW4 tips helped you to gather some useful information before the Gameweek 4 deadline.
Good luck in FPL GW4!
