The first gameweek of FPL has come to an end and let’s analyze the results. We’ll go through each match and see if the outcome was fair based on xG. If you are not familiar with xG model, check our post about xG. All stats are provided by understat.
Brentford – Arsenal
As we can see Brentford’s chances to win were 63%, so we can assume that their win is quite fair. If we have a look at shots themselves, we will see that the most xG from Arsenal was 0.12 and the most are 0.03-0.05. It tells us that Arsenal’s shots were all small chances and they didn’t create any real threat. But Brentford didn’t have many chances, but their two most threating shots were 0.89 (which resulted in a goal) and 0.56 xG. They were made by Christian Norgaard with his head.
Manchester United – Leeds
Man Utd also had very high chances to win this match. They let only 2 big chances happen by the Leeds side and none of them were converted to a goal. Whereas the Devils created 3 big chances, scored all of them and even two more. 5-1 is probably an unfair result, but the win is well deserved.
Burnley – Brighton
It was an even game. Burnley dominated the first half, but then created only 0.29 xG worth of chances in the second. And likewise Brighton was really bad in the first half creating only 0.23 xG. Both teams created 3 big chances each and Brighton came out as a winner. Interestingly enough, Tarkowski tied with Wood as they both created 3 shots, but Tarkowski’s xG is 1.10 and Wood’s 0.11.
Chelsea – Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace had almost no chance of winning this game, as they made only 4 shots with only 0.32 xG. Chelsea created only 1 big chance, so they were quite lucky to score 3.
Everton – Southampton
The first half was really bad for both teams, but Everton made a comeback in the second. Southampton created one big chance with the help of Everton’s defenders and aside from that goal they have only 0.22 xG for the whole match. I’d say it is pretty awful and they probably need to change something. It is the first game when a big score is quite fair.
Leicester – Wolverhampton
It is a first match when the result is against all odds. Leicester created 0 big chances, when Wolves created 1 with xG 0.53. Wolves dominated the game with 17 shots against 9 and yet they couldn’t win.
Watford – Aston Villa
Watford was dominating the whole match and they conceded only 3 shots before the 3-0 score. Aside from the 96′ penalty with 0.76 xG Aston Villa created only 0.38 xG worth of shots. It is a better result than Southampton, but not that much better.
Norwich – Liverpool
This game was closer than 0-3 for sure. Alisson’s triple save at the end of the match with accumulated 0.85 xG was an outstanding moment in the game. Aside from that moment Norwich created only 0.47 xG with 11 shots which tells us that it were low quality shots, but they were many. Liverpool created second top most big chances this gameweek – 4.
Newcastle United – West Ham
This game was one of two most top scoring games this week. Newcastle created 0.71 xG chance at 4th minute of the match and then had none the rest of the match. West Ham on the other side created 6 big chances this match – the most out of any team this week. West Ham is looking really strong indeed.
Tottenham – Manchester City
Another unfair result in terms of statistics. Man City created 3 big chances with 0.26, 0.47 and 0.61 xG and missed all of them. Spurs scored a minor chance with outside-the-box shot from Son with 0.03 xG, but created 1 big chance with 0.52 xG and missed it too. Looks like City still need a good finisher on their team.
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