Which players are most likely to score a goal in the following round of Fantasy Premier League? We converted bookies goalscoring odds (Premier League anytime goalscorer odds) into probabilities to find it out.
We used our Odds to probability calculator to make the conversion.
Do not forget to follow us on Twitter (@FplReports). We regularly post Goalscoring Odds there as well.
Premier League AnyTime Goalscorer Odds GW11
Remember, these goalscoring odds are valid only if the player starts the match from the beginning. If he is benched, the odds are voided.
| Player | AnyTime Goalscorer Odds |
|---|---|
| Haaland E.B. | 51 % |
| Solanke D. | 49 % |
| Salah M. | 46 % |
| Richarlison | 42 % |
| Johnson Brenann | 40 % |
| Núnez D. | 38 % |
| Son Heung Min | 38 % |
| Cunha M. | 36 % |
| Garnacho A. | 36 % |
| Höjlund R. | 36 % |
| Zirkzee J. | 36 % |
| Strand Larsen J. | 35 % |
| Díaz L. | 35 % |
| Gakpo C. | 35 % |
| Mbeumo B. | 34 % |
| Rashford M. | 34 % |
| Wheatley E. | 34 % |
| Isak A. | 34 % |
| Werner T. | 34 % |
| Hee-Chan Hwang | 32 % |
| Fernandes B. | 32 % |
| Semenyo A. | 31 % |
| Mateta J.P. | 31 % |
| Diallo Amad | 31 % |
| Wissa Y. | 30 % |
| Bowen J. | 30 % |
| Palmer C. | 30 % |
| Evanilson | 29 % |
| Jimenez R. | 29 % |
| Füllkrug N. | 29 % |
| Wood Ch. | 29 % |
| Havertz K. | 29 % |
| Nketiah E. | 27 % |
| Muniz R. | 27 % |
| Antonio M. | 27 % |
| Ings D. | 27 % |
| Archer C. | 27 % |
| Armstrong A. | 27 % |
| Onuachu P. | 27 % |
| Chiesa F. | 27 % |
| Awoniyi T. | 27 % |
| Schade K. | 26 % |
| Ünal E. | 26 % |
| Pedro J. | 26 % |
| Foden P. | 26 % |
| Durán J. | 26 % |
| Watkins O. | 26 % |
| Jackson N. | 26 % |
| Nkunku Ch. | 26 % |
| Saka B. | 26 % |
What about Mahrez ????
I accidentally left him out. I will add him right now.
How do you get these percentages? I understand how the calculator works but where do you get the odds? Surely you need the odds for Salah scoring and Salah not scoring? I use oddschecker and can only ever find the former.
Yes. I use bookies odds from a bookmaker that has both odds available: player scoring and player not scoring – so I can easily use the calculator for that. If you use oddschecker and have only one odds available, you can convert it to implied probability like this: 1/decimal odds or 1/(1+fractional odds). Oddschecker has currently odds for Salah scoring 4/9, which is 1.44 in decimal odds. So you will get an implied probability of 1/1.44=0.69 = 69 %. However you have a margin here as well, so the number is very high. The margin for goalscoring odds use to be around 5-10%, so you can reduce the result by that percentage to get a better approximation of real probability. Let’s assume that the margin is 8 % (my bookies use approximately 8 % margin for goalscoring odds), so your approximation for real probability could be (1-0.08)*0.69=0.63=63 %
Okay thankyou very much. Would you mind telling me what bookmaker you use? Or is that a secret
what bookmaker do you use?
Is Gakpo not listed favourably?
Lukaku?
Updated
King?
No Son? He didnt even make the list…
No, he did not. It was around 27 %. Bookies really got this one wrong I think.
what about jesus ?
Carlton Morris?