There have been 4 blanks in the row for Bukayo Saka, so FPL managers are considering selling him. In this article, we will talk about our opinion on whether you should keep or sell Saka in FPL before Gameweek 20.
Keep or Sell Saka in FPL?
- For us, Saka is HOLD
- I am keeping him in my FPL team
- Yes, before his blanks, he was delivering “just” 5 or 6 points, but would you rather have 6,5,6,5 in four gameweeks from your player, or 2,2,2,16? In both cases, you would earned 22 points over 4 gameweeks (yes he would have been a better captain in the last gameweek of the later sequence, but it is not that relevant as we are not really captaining him often).
- He is still a key player for a team that is currently top of the league
- Even in his last 4 blanks, he accumulated approximately 2,6 xGI
- He has been a reliable FPL asset over the last 3 seasons – he was averaging 4,53 points per game per season, which is approximately 172 points per 38 games per season (Read more in our article: Best long-term FPL picks for 2023/24 season)
- Do not have unrealistic expectations from Saka. He is a player that can deliver around 180 – 220 points during FPL season, that is between 4.7 and 5.8 points per match.
- This season, he is averaging 5.56 points per match, which is equivalent to 211 points per 38 matches.
- Another thing is, that you should use your free transfers now on more pressing issues – dealing with the absences of players like (Salah, Son, Kudus, Hwang) who will go to AFCON and Asian Cup in GW21
That is enough reason for us and for me to hold him, and I will likely end up holding him through the whole season.
Because FPL is unpredictable – you can never time when a player’s points will come. For me, Saka’s reliability from previous seasons is enough to not worry about his FPL output. And if I get it wrong, then I get it wrong, I accept that.
For me, the player’s reliability over the past seasons is one of the most important factors I consider when selecting players into my FPL team.
FPL managers are always asking, why their players deliver before they buy them, blank when they own them, and then deliver again when they sell them. It’s like on financial markets. Retail traders always buy on the top, and sell on the bottom.
Just look at Areola, who was among top scoring goalkeepers after 3-4 gameweeks, and then just a series of blanks followed. And then, when the majority of FPL managers sold him, he delivered clean sheets against Man. United and Arsenal. Or look at Trent Alexander Arnold. After the first 8 gameweeks, barely anyone considered him, as his form was weaker. But now, after a series of his hauls, everyone wants to buy him.
But consider managers who owned him from the beginning, because he was a reliable FPL asset with a good history of doing well in terms of FPL points. These managers did not sell him after 8 gameweeks when he was blanking, they kept him and now they own the top-scoring defender in the game while enjoying all his past points.
It only shows, how unpredictable FPL is, and how unevenly are FPL points distributed.
The thing is, we cannot fight the statistical laws regarding how are values distributed around their expected values, like The Law of Large numbers or The Chaos Theory, the Theory of Extreme Values Clusters.
FPL is a chaotic, unpredictable system, where patience can be the best approach and your best strategy. Otherwise, you can end up holding players only for their blanks and chasing their hauls by buying them only after their haul (which means you always miss their biggest hauls).
At the end of the day, it is your decision
But at the end of the day, the decision on keeping or selling a player has to be your own.
This is not advice on whether you should keep or sell Saka, this is just our opinion and our reasoning.
You have to decide for yourself, what you will do…
Further reading
- 7 Key Tips for Fantasy Premier League Success
- The Law Of Large Numbers and its Role in FPL
- The Theory of Extreme Values Cluster in FPL
