The deadline for the first leg of the Fantasy Champions League Round of 16 (Matchday 7) is getting closer and closer. Now it is time to set our teams as best as we can for the elimination rounds.
Let’s jump to our tips for UCL Fantasy R16 1st leg with the best picks, fixtures, transfer targets, odds, captain picks, and team selection.
Looking for Matchday 8 Tips? Visit our article: UCL Fantasy Matchday 8: Tips, Best Pick, Captain and Team Selection
1. Tips for Round of 16 – Matchday 7 – of Fantasy Champions League
a) Focus on teams that have a high chance of advancing to the quarterfinals
- In one of our previous articles, we discussed teams you should focus on in your UCL Fantasy squad for the Round of 16 1st leg.
- You should read that whole article because the information there is very important.
- However, to keep it short, you should focus on players from teams that are likely to progress to the next round.
- Yes, we have 3 + 5 free transfers for the quarterfinals, but it might not be enough. We supported this idea with probabilities and calculations in the original article.
We converted bookies’ odds into probabilities using our Odds to probability calculator to determine which teams are most likely to progress to the next round.
Basically, you should pay special attention to the players from teams from the first half of the table you can find in that article.
Read more: UCL Fantasy R16: Which teams to focus on?
Some popular #UCLFantasy picks that will miss the next match if booked (currently on 2 yellow cards):
-Dias, Hakimi, Hummels, Lucas Hernandez, Joao Felix, Lautaro Martinez#MD7 #UCL #ChampionsLeague
— Fantasy Football Reports (@FplReports) February 13, 2024
b) Have a captain for each day
Aim to have four good captaincy options for the Round of 16 – one for each playing day. More about captaincy later in the article.
c) Pick goalkeepers who play on different days
Do not pick goalkeepers from the same day – that way you cannot use your substitutions for your goalkeeper if your first goalkeeper blanks.
d) If you have chips, plan when you use them
If you hadn’t used your chips in the group stage (which is usually the best time to use chips because of good fixtures against whipping boys), plan now when you use them.
e) Do not overlook players good at balls recovered and MOTM awards
Balls recovered and MOTM awards can be a huge source of points in the Fantasy Champions League. Do not overlook players that are good at balls recovered or MOTM when selecting your squad for R16. More about these players later in the article.
2. Fixtures to target in UCL Fantasy Round of 16
Which fixtures you should target? We always use bookies’ odds to help us determine that. Let’s look at which teams have the highest chance of winning their match in the R16 1st leg and scoring a lot of goals in that game:
- FC Copenhagen vs. Manchester City: Citizens 78 % to win, 38 % to score 2.5+ goals
- Lazio vs. Bayern: Bayern 62 % to win, 21 % to score 2.5+ goals
- PSG vs. Real Sociedad: PSG 58 % to win, 31 % to score 2.5+ goals
- FC Porto vs. Arsenal: The Gunners 55 % to win, 15 % to score 2.5+ goals
Find 2.5+ goals odds for all teams in our article: Champions League Over 2.5 Goals Odds.
We also think you should target the Leipzig vs. Real Madrid match – however, the odds are pretty even for both teams according to bookies.
3. Best players to pick in the Round of 16
We look at key players to pick in the UCL Fantasy Round of 16 (Matchday 7). We examine each position and each price bracket. You can check our separate articles here:
- Best Goalkeeper to pick in UCL Fantasy Round of 16
- Best Defenders to pick in UCL Fantasy Round of 16
- Best Midfielders to pick in UCL Fantasy Round of 16
- Best Forwards to pick in UCL Fantasy Round of 16
- Differential picks to consider in UCL Fantasy R16
Best players to pick from each team
Find out, who are the best players to pick from each team in UCL Fantasy this season, in our article: Best players from each team to pick in UCL Fantasy.
4. Best captain picks for UCL Fantasy R16 1st Leg
During the 1st Leg of UCL Fantasy R16 we can change our captain 3 times, which is a big advantage. That gives us a big chance to get a good captaincy return.
You need to make sure you have a solid captaincy option for each day!
And what is the magic number when you should be satisfied with the return of your captain?
Generally, we consider it to be 6 points. So, when your captain scores 6 points, you keep the armband on him.
But it’s R16 and we can change our captain 3 times. So, we altered our captaincy rule a bit.
We changed our magic captain number to 8 points and decreased it by every playing day.
It means, when your captain scores 8 or more points on the first day (Tuesday), you keep the armband for him. If not, you change it. But then the threshold changes to 7 points on the second playing day (Wednesday).
To recap, the captaincy thresholds for the R16 are:
- 13 Feb: 8 points
- 14 Feb: 7 points
- 20 Feb: 6 points
- 21 Feb: 5 points
And the captains? Well, we picked these four players as best captain options for the first leg of UCL Fantasy R16:
- 13 Feb: Haaland
- 14 Feb: Harry Kane
- 20 Feb: Hummels (Fullkrug is also good option)
- 21 Feb: Saka
However, all those players are expensive heavy hitters, so you probably will not have all of them in your squad.
So, just pick at least three of them for your team. And make sure you have other solid captaincy options for other days.
Read more about our captaincy thresholds: UCL Fantasy Captaincy Thresholds: When to change captain?
5. Balls-recovering heroes
As we said many times, the balls recovered are a game changer for UCL Fantasy.
That is why you should pay close attention to players that are good at it. We analyzed, which players are recovering balls at a high rate.
You can find our tables here: The Most Balls Recovered in UCL Fantasy (Before R16)
Pick some of these players for your UCL Fantasy team. Defenders good at balls recovered offer stable points return even if their teams will not keep a clean sheet.
You just pick them into your team and could get at least 4 points no matter what. That is so great. Also, do not overlook midfielders who are great at balls recovered as they are usually very cheap.
Their points potential is very high and their points output is very stable.
We like Hummels and Kim among defenders good at balls recovered. From midfielders, we prefer Kimmich and Rodri due to their stable points output.
6. Most MOTM Awards
Similarly, the MOTM awards are another excellent source of points in the Fantasy Champions League.
You can find players good at it in our article: The most Man of The Match (MOTM) awards in UCL Fantasy (Before R16)
7. Goalkeepers with the most saves per match
Looking for the best goalkeepers for your Round 16 team? Find out, which goalkeepers also offer save potential.
You can find players good at it in our article: Goalkeepers with most saves per match in UCL Fantasy (Before R16)
8. Odds and Probabilities for Matchday 7
Clean Sheet Odds for R16 1st Leg
After we selected our captains and analyzed the balls-recovering potential of players, we focus on defenses.
As usual, we converted bookies’ clean sheet odds into UCL Fantasy R16 clean sheet probabilities using our Odds to probability calculator.
Clean sheet odds are unusually in a tight range for many teams, so clean sheets will be extremely hard to predict in R16 1st leg. Perhaps you should aim to have all 6 of your defending players (DEF + GK) from different teams and diversify.
Manchester City and Bayern have the highest probability of a clean sheet, so you might aim to get at least one defender from each of those teams. Bookies also favor Inter Milan, PSG and Arsenal to do well defensively.
You can see all Champions League Clean Sheet Odds here.
Our advice is to focus on defenders that meet these 3 requirements:
- Have high chance of clean sheet in the 1st leg of R16
- Have a high chance of progressing to the next round
- Offer something extra (goal threat, assist potential or balls recovered potential).
Goalscoring Odds for Matchday 7
Odds for the first 4 matches are available: Champions League Goalscoring Odds. Unfortunately, bookies do not have odds for next week games.
9. Team selection for UCL Fantasy Round of 16
Here it is. Our UCL Fantasy R16 team selection: Scout Squad.
Image source: UCL Fantasy Official
Our captain sequence is: Haaland – Kane – Hummels – Saka.
How is your team looking right now? Who are you captaining? Leave a comment below.
Good luck in the UCL Fantasy R16!
10. Fantasy Champions League Tips
Find more tips, strategies, and picks for UCL Fantasy in these articles:
- Beginner? Read our guide: How to play UCL Fantasy?
- Confused about the rules? Read the Official guidelines of the game
- Do you want to get better at UCL Fantasy? Read our article about Essential Tips for UCL Fantasy Success.
Feel free to JOIN our UCL fantasy mini-league for the 2023/24 season using our league code 50U1FM5M03.
Good luck in UCL Fantasy Matchday 7 – Round of 16 1st Leg.
Very good analysis. Some of this data is extremely useful and I appreciate your effort to inform us. Most of the information I agree with.
My team is pretty different from yours though.
Haller-Lewa-Antony
KDB-Mahrez-Sane-Salah
Cancelo-Mendes-Rudiger
Ulreich
Bench: Rulli (gk) – Azpilicueta (def) – Mazraoui (def) – Alvarez (mid)
Comments on FWD: Jota instead of Antony is a fair pick, but I still think Antony has a greater chance of scoring points given the matchup (and is 0.3m cheaper). Also Antony has been playing great on the latest Ajax matches.
Comments on MID: I don’t trust Foden’s skill to score points very much. Feels like he’s the young kid learning from the most experienced at City (not in his peak yet). So I have avoided him, and went for Mahrez instead, who has been playing great on the latest City matches. Also was able to go for KDB, Sane, Salah (all super stars in mid) because I spent little money on defenders and gk, which I will explain next.
Comments on DEF: I try to pick cheap defenders that play aggressive roles, or are good at headers (Rudiger in my lineup, for example, is a full back but goes in for headers on corners). Kimmich is wayyyy too expensive. I would trust a defender like Sule instead if I wanted to bet for bayern defs. I went for Rudiger-Azpilicueta who have been extremely consistent in this season’s UCL and are highly likely to acheive a clean sheet against Lille. Also, they’re much cheaper than your T-Alexander-Kimmich duo). This could go wrong for me if chelsea play very bad against Lile but I am pretty confident they will smash them.
Comments on GK: Again, trying to save money. As long as the keeper gets a clean sheet it’s a win for me. Went for cheap goalkeepers (Ederson is too expensive and will most likely do the same points as other cheaper alternatives). I would have gone for Pasveer if it wasn’t because I already had 4 ajax players in my lineup, so I had to hire Rulli instead (when he’s on his best day, he can do amazing, but he’s just a backup in the rare case that Bayern and Ulreich get a lot of trouble against Salzburg).
That is the end of my analysis. Thanks again for your help.
Forgot to add, I also didn’t go for bayern defenders because I am afraid that Salzburg will score since their first match is at home (tomorrow). I would be more confident to add bayern defenders if tomorrow’s match was a home game at bayern stadium. HOWEVER, I did risk to put Ulreich as my main keeper just because he has high probabilities to earn clean sheet against Salzburg and he’s VERY cheap and VERY talented (much cheaper than Ederson, for example).